North Mecklenburg News

Mecklenburg County health experts and officials are projecting that COVID-19's peak for the greater Charlotte-area could come in late June. 

The forecast provides county-based hospitals with a timeline as to when to expect the greatest number of cases and is based on 45% of the population following social distancing guidelines, according to an April 20 report in the Charlotte Observer.

A large surge in cases at the June 27 peak could put Atrium Health and Novant Health in a position where there are not enough beds, staff, ventilators and equipment to treat coronavirus patients. 

Models also projected that if 30% of residents continue social distancing, the peak would occur June 16 and require 2,899 hospital beds. If 60% maintain social distancing, the peak in cases could come as late as July 17 and require 1,071 hospital beds, according to the publication. The latest modeling takes into account potential demand from Mecklenburg County and surrounding North Carolina and South Carolina counties.

“There has not yet been a dramatic acceleration in new cases and the number of new cases each day is starting to trend downward,”  Mecklenburg officials said in a news release obtained by the Charlotte Observer. “This suggests we continue to make progress toward ‘flattening the curve.’ We  must continue social and physical distancing in our community to  maintain this progress.”

A previous estimate of the surge was given by Mecklenburg County Public Health Director Gibbie Harris, who said the peak was likely between mid-April to mid-May, according to the publication. Harris has since revised that statement, saying that social distancing measures were working and a June 8 peak was more likely. 

If recent projections are accurate, on June 27 local hospitals in greater Charlotte would need 1,143 ICU beds and 515 ventilators. There are 283 ICU beds and 243 ventilators in Mecklenburg County, according to the report. 

Harris emphasized during a press briefing that flattening the curve is not equal with reducing the number of infections and peak hospital demand doesn't dictate when the stay-at-home requirements will be lifted, according to the report. 

As of April 20, 1,231 Mecklenburg County residents tested positive for COVID-19, the state Health and Human Services reported. Thirty-one have died. Officials said this maybe 5-10% of actual infections considering that people with no to mild symptoms are staying home and not being tested.